Popular Koizumi aims to take Tokyo

Voters may still be wary of the conservative old guard within the LDP

TOKYO -- A vote for the legislature in Japan's capital on Sunday will indicate whether Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will be able to carry out reforms to revive the economy.

The vote for the 127-seat Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly is seen as a litmus test for elections in the upper house of parliament on July 13.

Koizumi's popularity has soared since he assumed the premiership in April.

So far, public approval of his cabinet choices, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Makiko Tanaka, and sympathy toward labor have propped up his image.

But political analysts are finding it difficult to predict voting because the reformist Koizumi's worst foes are still within the LDP's old guard.

Opposition from conservatives within the party could also block Koizumi's plans to implement painful reforms, even if they make a sweep in the July poll.

Popularity's pull

"The prime minister's popularity is a separate issue from this local election, but it is true that our party is fighting a tough battle," said Fumiyoshi Kadowaki, a ward assemblyman campaigning for the Democrats in western Tokyo.

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A survey by a business daily said Koizumi's popularity leaves the main opposition Democratic Party in a tight spot.

But it remains uncertain to what extent the LDP can persuade fed-up urban voters to lend it support.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper said in its survey on Thursday that the LDP was likely to get between 46 and 50 seats.

The party won 54 seats in the last Tokyo election four years ago but now holds only 48 after six resigned to run for other posts.

The Democrats, who share much of Koizumi's reform agenda but lack a leader with similar charisma, are unlikely to increase their seats much beyond the 13 they hold and might even lose some seats, the newspaper added.

Re-packaging the LDP

The conservative LDP had been widely expected to take a beating in Sunday's vote if Koizumi's unpopular predecessor, Yoshiro Mori, had remained in office.

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Koizumi replaced Mori in a stunning victory in April, propelled to office by grass-roots LDP support.

Koizumi has been doing his best to alter the LDP's image as a party dedicated to pork-barrel spending for rural regions.

Such perception culminated in sharp losses in urban centers during a lower house election last June.

The LDP won just over 30 percent of the votes cast in the 1997 Tokyo municipal election, against about 10 percent for the Democrats.

Turnout was a record-low 40.8 percent.

Reuters contributed to this report.