Q & A: Wahid may face frosty welcome home

CNN's Atika Shubert looks at the political fallout facing President Abdurrahaman Wahid when he returns to Indonesia. In his absence, Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri went to the troubled province of Kalimantan to assess the ethnic slaughter of migrant Madurans by native Dayaks.

Q: What has Megawati's visit to Kalimantan achieved?

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Shubert: Certainly this was the second visit by a high-level official, and the most significant one. She went in and visited refugee camps, spoke to some refugees. She was greeted with loud cheers. It was really a boost for many of the refugees who have been complaining that the government's reaction is too slow.

This is a marked contrast to President Wahid's reaction to the violence. He has refused to shorten a trip overseas, saying that the reports of the violence were exaggerated and that everything is under control.

His reaction to the violence hasn't been well received in Jakarta, certainly not by his critics. About 2,000 students marched outside the presidential palace on Thursday, and demanded that Mr. Wahid return immediately or face resignation.

Q: So is Megawati using this occasion to boost her chance to become the president?

Shubert: Well, certainly Megawati is not making any comment on what she's attempting to accomplish politically. She's sort of set a much humanitarian cause instead of a political one on this trip. However, Wahid's opponents are rallying behind her trip. Many of his opponents in parliament greeted her when she came off the plane in Jakarta returning from the trip.

So there's clearly a political movement rallying around Megawati, comparing her trip to Kalimantan as opposed to Mr. Wahid's reaction that he'll not cut short his trip overseas.

Q: Why is Mr. Wahid behaving like this?

Shubert: According to Mr. Wahid, he has spoken to his top security ministers. And they assured him that the violence was under control. Now it's important to remember that the violence was really just starting when Mr. Wahid left for the two-week trip abroad. So he was aware that this violence was occurring in Kalimantan before he left.

And even at that point there were calls for him not to go and to stay in Indonesia. But he met security ministers the night before he left, telling them that the violence should be quelled quickly. So in Mr. Wahid's opinion, at least in what he's told the press is that he has handled the problem, he has spoken to the top security ministers, and they had to deploy troops if necessary.

Q: Why did Mr. Wahid have to leave for overseas at that point of time?

Shubert: It's unclear why he decided to take this trip at this time. Certainly one of the reasons is that he wanted to go on the haj pilgrimage. It is not unusual for Indonesian officials to do so. Megawati herself went on the Haj last year around this time.

However in addition to the Haj, he took a brief tour in the Middle East and some countries in Africa. And his critics are saying certainly that part of the trip was not necessary in this time of political turmoil and now ethnic turmoil in Indonesia.

Q: How likely is a coup with Wahid still away?

Shubert: In terms of Megawati taking over the government, that remains to be seen. It would seem to be a scenario that's quite unlikely in a sense that Wahid is due back on March 7, on Wednesday, and Megawati has made no moves to say that she'd be taking any political action to take over the Wahid presidency at this time.

But what we can say for certain is that there's a lot of momentum behind the scenes, certainly among the political elite that are rallying behind his refusal to come back because of the Kalimantan violence, as a reason to rally opposition against Wahid and for Megawati.

And in fact one of the parliament legislators whom we spoke to yesterday said that specifically that was why he was coming out to greet Megawati on her return trip from Kalimantan to show that parliament didn't have a problem with the government, or with any of the ministers, or the vice president. But the problem was solely between Wahid and parliament.

Q: Back in Kalimantan, how's the situation there now?

Shubert: The situation has certainly calmed down significantly there now. There's more activity in the streets, some shops are open, and markets are doing business. Police seem to have maintained some control of the area.

The indigenous Dayak gangs that we saw rampaging over the past week have largely give in their weapons or put down their weapons, and are in some talks with local officials.

However this still leaves the problem of thousands of refugees who are waiting in Kalimantan to be evacuated, as well as several thousands who have already been evacuated to Madura.

The government now has to come up with some solution what to do with these tens of thousands of displaced people. The immediately problem is how to find better condition for the refugees who are remaining in Kalimantan. They're in squalid makeshift camps, unless they receive better care and better conditions do face a threat of disease.

And the second problem is what to do with some 50,000 displaced people. Indonesia does have a big refugee crisis in a sense that it has over a million people who have been displaced by ethnic and communal conflicts, as well as separatist conflicts throughout the archipelago. So 50,000 refugees are only compounding this problem.

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