Wahid's political gambits

By CNN's Atika Shubert

JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- President Wahid is counting down to his possible impeachment.

On May 30, lawmakers will meet to decide whether to have a special session of the National Assembly, the only forum that can appoint and remove the president.

But even if parliament does vote for a special session, the country will have to wait another two months before the assembly meets. That gives Wahid plenty of time to try several political gambits to save his presidency.

Below are a few of the options Wahid has at his disposal to resolve the conflict:

Impeachment

"I respect the sovereignty of the National Assembly and because it is according to the constitution. If that happens I will campaign again for the presidency. … From the moment of impeachment to the end of the next election, I will campaign continuously. This is a statement from a citizen who will be impeached." - President Abdurrahman Wahid

Indonesia is currently set on the road to impeachment. Lawmakers see it as the most viable method for legally removing President Wahid.

According to the Standing Orders of the National Assembly, a special session can force a resignation by rejecting the president's accountability speech -- tantamount to withdrawing the president's mandate.

Among the problems are fears that Wahid's forced removal may trigger a violent reaction from supporters.

Also, there is nothing in the constitution -- a higher legal standing than the National Assembly's Standing Orders -- that states the president must necessarily step down if the accountability speech is rejected.

Resignation

"I choose not to resign. I would like to see whether parliament could impose that on me. " President Abdurrahman Wahid

According to Wahid, resignation is not an option. To his critics, however, resignation is the safest and quickest option with the least cost to the country. Wahid's supporters say a resignation would only provoke a violent reaction from the president's supporters.

Compromise Agreement

"No. That agreement was reached a long time ago. The vice president has already been given responsibility for the daily running of the government. I have already given everything to her." President Abdurrahman Wahid

A political compromise is still hoped for, particularly by cabinet ministers and the military.

Two kinds of compromise are possible: A power-sharing agreement, transferring much of the executive power to Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri; or a substantial government reshuffle, replacing ministers and other high level officials to reflect the power dynamics in parliament.

Past experience has proved, however, that a power sharing agreement is not easy to maintain.

Despite giving over the "technical" and "day to day" running of government to the vice president, Wahid refused to relinquish control of policy decision or cabinet appointments. As a result, both Wahid and Megawati have rejected all suggestions at another compromise.

Dissolving parliament

"We are the people's soldiers. We will be standing by the people's side if they find themselves in conflict with the government." Military Commander of Elite Troops, Ryamizard Ryacudu

A scenario in which President Wahid uses sweeping powers leftover from the Suharto era to declare a state of civil emergency and dissolve parliament would stop the impeachment process dead but critics argue that it would compromise democratic principles.

The idea has been firmly rejected by the military, whose support is essential to install a civil emergency.

Senior military officers say they will remain loyal to government as an institution, but not necessarily to individuals within government. A clear warning to Wahid that he cannot use the military to fight political battles.

Mobilizing the Masses

"You can see that it is a nationwide rebellion against the ways of Parliament, which is doing its worst now." President Abdurrahman Wahid

Wahid has repeatedly threatened that the "silent majority" that supports him will revolt against parliament. Fears of mob violence have been levied against attacks by lawmakers in parliament.

Rabid supporters made their point in February by torching the offices of rival political parties in East Java after parliament issued the first censure against the president. There have been no threats of mass protests recently. But the possibility looms as a worst-case scenario.

Supreme Court intervention

"As the highest judicial body, I think the Supreme Court can issue a ruling to settle any legal disputes, especially in a case such as this where there is worsening antagonism between the President and parliament." Justice Minister Baharuddin Lopa

A last-minute gambit by some Wahid supporters to make the Supreme Court the final arbiter of the political crisis. Legal experts have dismissed the idea, however, saying the Supreme Court is not a Constitutional Review.