East Java: Wahid's last hope?

Thousands of Wahid supporters clash with police in Pasuruan, East Java last month

By Amy Chew

SURABAYA, Indonesia (CNN) -- The densely populated province of East Java is the last bastion of support for Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid.

Home to over 32 million people, or 15 percent of the country's population, East Java is the home ground of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia's largest Muslim organization and the body which Wahid headed for 15 years before stepping down in 1999 to assume the presidency.

Now Wahid is struggling to fend off a looming impeachment process that could see him forcibly removed from office.

The NU, a moderate Muslim group which advocates pluralism and claims 40 million followers, has vowed to defend Wahid's presidency until the end of his term in 2004.

To Wahid's followers, many of them who come from the poor rural areas, he is their savior from injustice and poverty after 32 years of oppression under former President Suharto.

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"We are prepared to die for Gus Dur, especially those who are poor,” says said Ahmad Nadir, a fervent Wahid supporter, referring to the president’s long-standing nickname.

“The poor are more prepared to die than to live because their lives are so hard, they have nothing more to lose."

"If Gus Dur is ousted, the people will leave their paddy fields, wives and children to defend him," he added.

Nadir's militancy echoes those of many of Wahid's followers, raising fears of increased violence in the run-up to the probable impeachment session.

In a country which has grappled with almost constant social unrest for the past three years, such a prospect fills many with alarm.

Suicide squads

Thousands of fanatical supporters in East Java have proclaimed the formation of suicide squads, wielding what they say are martial and mystical powers.

Indonesia's military and police intelligence warned recently that if "no good political solution" were found to the current crisis, there would be significant "security disturbances which risk exceeding the security forces ability to overcome them."

Some NU followers believe that deposing Wahid is against God's plans as they view his rise to power as a religious miracle given that he is blind.

"But the fact that he did get elected is God's divine decree and one should not interfere with God's decree," said Nadir.

However, Wahid's chances of survival are slim -- parliament's opposition to him is near unanimous and his long-time ally, Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, has deserted him and appears to be preparing to replace him.

Demonstrators torched a church after security forces forced them away from government buildings in East Java in May

The daughter of the country's founding father Sukarno, Megawati also heads the country's largest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P), which holds the majority in parliament.

Power struggle

Historically, the PDI-P and NU masses have existed as brother and sister -- a platform for the country's poor, nationalist in ideology and advocates of pluralism.

But the recent power struggle among the elite has filtered to the grassroots of both organizations.

"PDI-P and us are no longer friends," said student Syafidin from East Java's town of Pasuruan, the scene of some of the most violent pro-Wahid rallies.

According to PDI-P's Zulfi Azwan, relations between the grassroots in both groups are good despite the fighting at the top level.

"I am confident our friends in NU will not attack us," said Zulfi.

NU's chairman Hasyim Muzadi warned that if parliament ignored the people's wishes with regards to Wahid's presidency, violence would erupt even though no order was given for the masses to come out.

"If the MPs do not walk the same road as the people, this [violence] will flare up here and there."