Indonesia's Wahid may be changing approach

The peace dove has eluded Wahid so he may have to soften his approach

By Maria Ressa, CNN Jakarta Bureau Chief

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- After forceful words last week, Indonesia's President Abdurrahman Wahid seems to be backing down.

Increasingly isolated, Indonesia's first democratically elected president in nearly four decades has backed himself into a corner -- saying he would declare a state of emergency if legislators insist on demanding an "accountability speech" when the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly, Indonesia's top legislative body, meets on August 1.

Historically, that speech is a report of the President's successes and failures.

If rejected by the Assembly, it would begin a murky impeachment process -- which would, in effect, be a no-confidence vote.

VIDEO CNN's interview with the embattled Indonesian president (July 12) Play video (QuickTime, Real or Windows Media)   EXTRA INFORMATION In-depth: Shadows over Indonesia     RESOURCES CNN Access: Wahid expresses confidence amid political battle

Many in Jakarta accused Wahid of using the same tactics as the authoritarian leader who led Indonesia for 32 years, Suharto.

That's not true, says academic Greg Barton, who is working on an authorized biography of the embattled president.

"The core message here is that if democracy comes to a deadlock such that it's likely to fail, circuit breaker may be to have fresh elections. To have fresh elections, you've got to freeze Parliament.

"To freeze Parliament, you've got to have some sort of state of extraordinary circumstances -- emergency," says Barton.

On Sunday, Wahid admitted he may not have the support of the military and police.

"I can issue a state of emergency. I have the power to do it but would it be a wise decision?" asked Wahid at a gathering of students.

"It may be better if we just suspended the House of Representatives so we don't have to dissolve them."

Much will depend on what Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri does in the coming days. Her party, the PDI-P, has the largest number of seats in the legislature.

Most of Wahid's political problems stem from his inability to cement a political alliance with Megawati, who in the past has tacitly supported him.

Now that has changed. In indirect comments, Megawati has criticized Wahid's behavior.

Her party's votes helped send two censures to Wahid and set the stage for his accountability speech in August. In the past few weeks, Megawati has reportedly refused to speak to the president, publicly snubbing him on several occasions.

Still, palace insiders say Megawati visited Wahid last Friday and that they may still cobble together a power-sharing agreement.

"I wouldn't rule out a compromise," says Barton, "It may be very much at the eleventh hour, but it may sort of defuse what appears to be a ticking bomb."

Most in Jakarta agree -- if nothing is done soon, Wahid could be looking at the end of his presidency.

Associated Press reported that in the capital on Tuesday, thousands of police and soldiers staged a show of force outside parliament amid fears of violence in the lead-up to next month's impeachment process.

Police and army chiefs reviewed about 6,000 troops inside the heavily guarded parliamentary complex. A dozen armored vehicles and lines of police motorcycles were parked nearby.

Reuters contributed to this report.