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Hu's new deal
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam
BEIJING, China (CNN) -- The administration of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief Hu Jintao is offering a new social contract to 1.3 billion Chinese. The new deal can be summarized as prosperity under one-party rule, more upward mobility, a relatively efficient and clean government -- but no "Western-style democracy." Of foremost importance is the pledge of prosperity, which underpins a central message of last month's 16th Party Congress, that China will become a "comprehensively well-off society" by the year 2020. When Deng Xiaoping first launched the era of reform in the early 1980s, his slogan was "let one part of the population get rich first." What the Hu leadership is promising is that in two decades' time or so, almost half of Chinese will have entered the ranks of citizens with zhongchan or medium-level income, the equivalent of the middle class in industrialized societies. In fact, Hu and his Politburo colleagues are convinced the CCP might be able to indefinitely prolong its mandate of heaven if it could successfully nurture a relatively prosperous, pro-status quo middle class. According to out-going President Jiang Zemin's Political Report to the Congress, which is entitled "Build a well-off society in an all-round way," China's economy would quadruple by the year 2020. And per capita share of GDP should jump from the current $800 to around $3,000. Per capita GDP in coastal cities ranging from Shanghai to Shenzhen, however, has already cleared the $1,400 hurdle. StabilityAnd there are indications that denizens along the so-called "Gold Coast" seem so satisfied with material progress they have become a pillar of socio-political stability. Jiang's Political Report said specifically that China should "expand the proportion of middle-income earners [in the population], which will be beneficial to China's social stability." As leading sociologist Lu Xueyi pointed out, members of the middle class tended to identify themselves with the ideology and policies of the ruling party. "The larger the proportion of citizens with medium-level income, the more stable a particular country will be," he said. According to Lu, who works at the respected Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), China's zhongchan class makes up about 18% of the population. He said the country should be able to add one percentage point to the zhongchan proportion each year, so that the latter could swell to close to 40% by 2020. The major obstacle to the growth of a middle class is China's peasants, who still account for roughly 70% of the populace. Gargantuan task
Noted CASS economist Jiang Xiaojuan indicated that China was engaged in a "gargantuan task of the mass transfer of labor forces." She figured that by 2020, about 220 million peasants would have found jobs in the industrial and services sectors, which already employed some 350 million Chinese. The CCP's new focus on the middle or "new classes" -- including professionals and non-state entrepreneurs -- is behind China's slogan of the year, the "Theory of the Three Represents." The dictum, which essentially means the party should represent the most advanced productivity and culture, is a sign that the CCP is gradually but relentlessly shedding its proletarian roots. According to Singapore-based Sinologist Zheng Yongnian, the concept of a "well-off society" meant in effect "rendering the proletarian class into the middle class." Zheng pointed out that "the [new CCP] goal of building a well-off society in a comprehensive way consists precisely in popularizing the zhongchan ideal." That this seems to go against orthodox Marxist precepts pales beside the critical CCP objective of attaining the proverbial "long reign and perennial stability." Staying loyal
However, the improvement of living standards alone is not enough to persuade the middle class to remain fans of the ruling party. Quite a number of zhongchan citizens are already clamoring for the kind of political clout that will enable them to protect their property, to shape their own destiny, and even to have a say in government policies. And there are signs the CCP has broadened avenues for political participation while cleaving to time-honored one-party dictatorship. Jiang's Theory of the Three Represents has made it possible for non-state entrepreneurs and professionals not only to join the CCP but to become relatively senior cadres. At the 16th Congress, millionaire private businessman Zhang Ruimin made history when he was inducted to the party's ruling Central Committee. A number of illustrious members of the zhongchan and new classes -- including the cream of the 135,000-or so Chinese who have returned to the country after getting advanced degrees from Western colleges -- have been recruited into the civil service at relatively high levels. New bloodAnd for the past five years or so, the CCP has tried to tap new talent by selectively holding public exams to pick officials up to the grade of heads of department, which is just one rung below the vice-ministerial rank. "The gist of the Three Represents Theory is to inject new blood into the party without having to temper with the formula of one-party dictatorship," said a Beijing-based Western diplomat. He added the CCP could also claim it was serious about rectifying problems such as corruption and inefficiency because it was hiring experts and managers from disparate sectors -- including returnees from abroad – to fill top-level jobs. It remains to be seen, however, whether Beijing's bid to nurture a middle class with Chinese characteristics -- and to open up the government on a limited basis -- could effectively prolong its mandate of heaven. Many other conditions need to obtain for the middle class to remain a stabilizing, pro-status quo force, particularly in countries without multi-party politics. An obvious prerequisite is the rule of law and a level playing field for individuals if not also for business concerns. For example, Singapore, whose model of governance is much admired by CCP cadres, has relatively rigorous, British-style legal and judicial standards. Jiang, Hu and other leaders have made much about Beijing's commitment to legal modernization, which was played up in the Political Report to the Congress as an important attribute of a "comprehensively well-off society." However, what the CCP has in mind is only rule by law, which means the promulgation and implementation of statutes under party leadership -- and in accordance with the party spirit. Without "Western style" institutions such as universal-suffrage elections and multi-party checks and balances, the ideals of rule of law and equality of opportunity may remain illusory. It is well-known that Jiang's "the party is supreme" principle has resulted in special privileges for the CCP elite and their children, who have access to fat business deals -- and who seem more equal than others before the law. And chronic socio-political problems such as corruption -- which is endemic to systems with one-party dictatorship -- could prompt even a money-obsessed middle class to rebellion.
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