The survival of Saddam Hussein

This is a text adaptation of CNN's Special Report, "The Unfinished War: A Decade Since Desert Storm," hosted by Brent Sadler, which debuted on Tuesday, January 16, 2001, on CNN and CNN International.

Aziz blames the U.S. for the ongoing sanctions

(CNN) - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's capacity for survival has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. In 1998, former U.S. President George Bush reflected on his staying power.

"I thought, when the war ended, that he could not survive the humiliating defeat. And every single Gulf country told me the same thing. The British felt the same way, the French felt the same way, indeed our whole coalition did. We did not believe that he would stay in office," Bush said. "But you know something, we underestimated the brutality he would bring to bear on his own people to keep his own self, keep his own person, in office."

Hussein now presides over a country locked in a low-intensity conflict with the United States and Great Britain. Those two nations alone deny freedom of movement for Iraq's military through two "no-fly" zones, one north of the 36th parallel and another below the 33rd parallel. Since the creation of these "no-fly" zones, more than 275,000 sorties have been flown over Iraq.

"The U.S. and the U.K. -- and for a while, France -- took steps by establishing the no-fly zones to make sure that the Iraqis couldn't use their full military to repress their own people," says Sir Jeremy Greenstock, British ambassador to the United Nations. "This also had the added effect of restraining Iraqi military power from again threatening Kuwait."

Today, whenever Iraq activates its surface-to-air defenses in the no-fly zones, British and American pilots respond militarily. And civilians have not been immune to their attacks.

Ten years ago, the use of force and sanctions to punish Iraq was supported by all five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: America, Britain, Russia, France and China. Today, the United States and Great Britain are increasingly isolated in their stance towards Iraq.

"We never voted for making sanctions permanent. We never voted for a situation which would last for ten years, practically demolishing the Iraqi economy and the Iraqi civil society and bringing humanitarian catastrophe. We never voted for establishing no-flight zones. We never voted to topple the regime in Baghdad," says Sergey Lavrov, ambassador of the Russian Federation to the U.N.

In the last few months, aircraft from Russia, France and China -- as well as from many other former coalition countries -- have landed in Baghdad. These flights have occurred despite the vocal opposition of the United States.

"I think here is a message again to the United States and to Britain and to the Security Council to say, 'Please understand before you become further marginalized that you must find a way to get out of this stalemate,'" says Hans Von Sponeck, former head of the U.N.'s humanitarian program in Iraq. "And one way to get out of this stalemate must be a dialogue."

For the moment, though, a dialogue with the United States appears unlikely. President-elect George W. Bush's choice for secretary of state, Colin Powell, sounded an uncompromising note at a recent press conference.

"I don't know what it will take to bring him to his senses. But we are in the strong position. He is in the weak position. And I think it is possible to re-energize those sanctions and to continue to contain him and then confront him, should that become necessary again," Powell said in December 2000.

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz continues to blame the United States.

"Because the U.S. government insists on the imposition of sanctions, insists on the continuation of aggression on Iraq, so this creates a real crisis. This crisis has to be solved by the international community in one way or another, if not within the Security Council, there should be other means and ways to find a solution," he says.

And at the United Nations, Secretary-General Kofi Annan continues to defend the Security Council's stance against Iraq, but he has initiated a far-reaching debate about the merits of sanctions in general.

"The human cost of the sanctions ... to the Iraqi people has been extraordinary. Which is why the secretary-general has constantly emphasized the need to reduce the humanitarian costs of the sanctions and why over the last two or three years he's been increasingly promoting the idea of so-called smart sanctions -- which target regimes and not people," explains Andrew Mack, director of strategic planning in the office of the U.N. secretary-general.

In the case of Iraq, smart sanctions would relax the restrictions on civilian goods, while increasing pressure on the rest of the regime's assets. However, it's nowhere near a done deal.

"It will be quite difficult to start a new approach in the Security Council, to start with a new tack that delivers sanctions much more pointedly against the regime," admits Greenstock.

What is certain is that the U.N. sanctions have left Saddam Hussein's power over his people undiminished.

"He's there. He is right when he says, 'If I survive, I win.' To him, survival means victory," says Said K. Aburish, author of "Saddam Hussein: The Politics of Revenge."

Some believe the Iraqi people -- not the government -- are suffering most under the sanctions.

"If we judge him by the yardstick he has assigned for himself, then he has indeed won the Gulf War," says Aburish. "... The kids in the West Bank and Gaza, when they rose in the most recent intifada against Israel, they were cheering Saddam Hussein. So were the people in Amman. So were the people in Damascus."

And it's not just the man on the street. Seven Arab nations -- all once-members of the Alliance -- have now sent planes to Baghdad. Still, there are holdouts. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Kuwait has restored diplomatic relations with the regime of Saddam Hussein.

"We don't confuse the genuine expression of sympathy to the Iraqi people with the nature of the Iraqi regime itself," says Mohammed Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. "Every year he celebrates his hideous act of occupying Kuwait, invading Kuwait, raping, pillaging and destroying Kuwait. So we can only express to the world our concern and our fear from the evil intention that Saddam Hussein has against us."

Meanwhile, on the last day of the year 2000, Hussein was celebrating again. On this occasion, he was presiding over Baghdad's largest military parade in a decade.

In 10 years, the Middle East region has turned full circle. Iraq's president is positioning himself again as a champion of Palestinian rights. He also is emerging as a leader with whom many countries are prepared to do business.

Hussein has made no attempt to re-invent himself. Instead he has clearly shown that while Iraq was repeatedly hit during 10 years of the "Unfinished War," he never fell down.

In conjunction with CNN Productions, "The Unfinished War: A Decade Since Desert Storm" was produced by Jason Williams and Diana Sperrazza and co-produced by Bill Morgan. It should be noted that Iraqi officials refused the producers of this program access to their country.